Dubai Population Growth and Housing Supply – Overview 2024

Hello. This is Arako Real Estate, a Korean real estate in Dubai. We hope that 2025 will be a happier and more powerful year for you.

So far, I have written four columns, and I have had time to answer some of the readers' questions about the Dubai real estate market trend, UAE inheritance tax, and the characteristics of areas that are rapidly gaining popularity. As the year ends and the new year begins, there have been inquiries from people wondering if the final statistics for 2024 have been released and if things are going as expected. This time, I will take the time to look back at the past statistics.

When I wrote about the correlation between Dubai's population change and real estate market in my first column, I created and introduced the table below. Let's review it.

Year	(A) Population	(B) Change	(C) Increase	(D) Required Units	(E)House Supply
2022	3.53 M	2.37%	81,860	32,744	33,189
2023	3.63 M	2.73%	96,580	38,632	38,089
2024	3.78 M	4.25%	154,220	61,688	*24,000
2025	3.89 M	* 2.8%	105,840	42,336	*42,000
2026	4.10 M	* 2.8%	108,934	43,574	*48,000
2027	4.21 M	* 2.8%	114,800	45,920	*30,000
	Source: DXB Interact, etc., September 2024	* estimated

I made a correction based on additional data from 2024. If the table above was based on statistics and projections from September of last year, the table below was created based on statistics from January of this year.

Year	(A) Population	(B) Change	(C) Increase	(D) Required Units	(E)House Supply
2022	3.53 M	2.37%	81,860	32,744	33,189
2023	3.66 M	2.96%	104,990	41,996	38,089
2024	3.83 M	4.66%	170,200	68,080	27,541
2025	3.96 M	* 3.5%	135,000	54,000	*42,000
2026	4.10 M	* 3.5%	110,000	44,000	*60,000
2027	4.24 M	* 3.5%	140,000	56,000	*47,000
	Source: DXB Interact, etc., January 2025	* estimated

The most notable thing when adjusting is that the population growth in 2024 is 4.66%, 170k. I think we can all agree on this number, considering that a recent article reported that Dubai's student population growth rate in 2024 was 6%.

According to recent rumors, a high-ranking Iranian official said that a nuclear deal between Iran and the United States will likely be reached within this year. There was also an investment expert who said that in the Trump era, anything can make money, so we should actively pursue business. Suddenly, since the fourth quarter of last year, inquiries from mainland Korea about purchasing real estate in Dubai have increased significantly. Since many predict that Dubai's population growth rate will continue at the current rate for at least three years, we have also raised our future forecast to 3.5%.

The expected supply of houses in 2025 has increased from 48,000 to 60,000, but it seems to be picking up again after a brief pause in Q3 of last year. Many of you may be wondering, like me. How can housing supply suddenly increase in 2025? We were wondering that too, when we heard that the expected handover of Palm Jebel Ali villa was 6 months earlier. The reason is that Dubai's administrative and construction know-how is accumulating, and we heard an unscientific empirical analysis that it is slightly accelerating and running better than expected. Of course, the results may be somewhat delayed or may be less than 60,000, but the current forecast is positive. Yes, it is good news that our Dubai is also developing a little more.

Last year, some of you who read our column complained because we always took an ambiguous stance and always added negative facts to positive news. So, Arako's position is going up? What? This time, we added one negative number to make it not unexpected.

Yes, yes. The Dubai government is planning and reviewing 1,180 projects, planning over 300,000 units over the next 8-10 years. This is a project to double the size of Dubai's economy and increase its total GDP to $712 billion by 2033. There is also Vision 2040, which aims to increase Dubai's population to 5.8 million. The better the real estate market is, the more projects will be commissioned. If there are unexpected negative events, such as the Lehman Brothers incident or the COVID-19 incident, the real estate market will struggle again. However, based on our experience over the past 20 years, we have a firm belief in the upward trend even if there are some valleys. That's why we are in the real estate business.

We'll come back with more useful content next time.

[source] Dubai Real Estate Column 05 - Dubai Population Growth and House Supply - 2024 Review | Author Araco Dubai Real Estate